Spain given ‘98% chance’ of fifth Champions League spot

For the first time in their history, Spain are close to earning a fifth Champions League spot through league position. With Italy as their closest rival, Athletic Club’s defeat of Roma in the Europa League dramatically increased the chances of La Liga taking said spot from Italy.

Last season the Bundesliga and Serie A qualified with five teams in the Champions League, but this year the Premier League and La Liga have become clear frontrunners for the extra spots, which are based on coefficient points with UEFA. As per Lorenzo Carli and Football Rankings, Spain have a 98% chance of gaining the fifth spot at the expense of Italy.

In 25.000 simulations :100% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿98% 🇪🇸2% 🇮🇹

Alt.Bilbao win and qualification against Roma changed everything https://t.co/0nMtx8Yiu9

— Lorenzo Carli (@lorenzo_carli83) March 13, 2025

England lead the race with 24.250 points, while Spain have an advantage of 1.741 points over Italy, sitting on 21.678 currently. Athletic’s victory at San Mames on Thursday night leaves Serie A with three teams left in European competitions: Inter in the Champions League, Lazio in the Europa League and Fiorentina in the Conference League.

📌 Race for an extra Champions League spot – Points added this week:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England, +2.070 pts🇪🇸 Spain, +1.786 pts🇩🇪 Germany, +1.250 pts🇮🇹 Italy, +1.000 pts

✅ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England will finish in Top 2!📈 🇪🇸 Spain likely to finish in Top 2!📉 🇮🇹 Italy still in race, but struggling! pic.twitter.com/kesoCHNZIP

— Football Rankings (@FootRankings) March 13, 2025

La Liga still have four teams remaining with Real Madrid and Barcelona competingin the Champions League still. Athletic fly the flag in the Europa League as they pursue a home final at San Mames in May, while Real Betis breezed past Vitoria Guimaraes in the Conference League, 6-2 on aggregate.

The fifth spot would appear to give the Basque side a safety net if their Europa campaign takes its toll on them. Currently Villarreal are in possession of the golden ticket on 44 points with a game in hand on those around them – Real Betis are three points behind and have some catching up to do in order to take advantage of any potential ramifications of their own progress.

It certainly increases the motivation for the chasing pack, with just four points separating seventh from 14th in La Liga. If Spain does secure the fifth spot, and if any of the big three win the Copa del Rey rather than Real Sociedad, eighth spot will be good enough for European football, which would include Betis, RCD Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano as it stands.