With eight games to go in La Liga – unless you’re Villarreal – the European race has been supercharged in La Liga this season. Who will make it to the rest of the continent come September though?
Spain’s UEFA Coefficient Flex Means More La Liga Teams in Europe
Spain’s topflight will soon cash in on their stellar UEFA coefficient this season. Sitting pretty in second place behind England, Spain’s coefficient looks rock-solid, with Italy unlikely to crash the party. This means that La Liga is all but guaranteed a fifth Champions League spot next season.
✅ To secure an extra Champions League spot:
🏴 England – 100% to secure it, as they need just one win to mathematically secure it!
🇪🇸 Spain – 98%
🇮🇹 Italy – 2%
🇩🇪 Germany – 0% to secure it, as just one draw for Spain will mathematically eliminate them!
(% per @NilsMackay) pic.twitter.com/1WEm39WXQO
— Football Rankings (@FootRankings) April 7, 2025
Meanwhile, the Copa del Rey final pits Real Madrid against Barcelona, both already Champions League-bound. This situation shuffles the deck: the Europa League spot usually reserved for the Copa winner gets passed down to the league standings. As it stands, seventh place will book a Europa League ticket, and eighth place gets Conference League entry. And should Athletic Club lift the Europa League trophy, Spain could unlock an unheralded sixth Champions League slot. That would push the seventh and eighth places into the Europa League, and the ninth place punches a ticket to the Conference League.
It’s chaos in the best way, as teams that would normally be involved in a regular low-stakes midtable melee now also have a chance at Europe. With the top six pretty much locked in (Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Athletic Club, Real Betis, and Villarreal), the spotlight shifts to the pack of hopefuls jostling for seventh, eighth – and maybe ninth. As of the eighth of April, 2025, Celta lead the pack with 43 points, followed by Real Sociedad (41), Rayo Vallecano and RCD Mallorca (both 40), Getafe (39), and Sevilla (36). Let’s dive into the contenders and see who can crash the continental parties.
Celta Vigo: Away Days, Big Dreams
For the first time in almost a decade, it feels like everyone in Vigo – coach, players, management, fans – are all rowing in the same direction, and that direction is seemingly Europe. They might not be the deepest or most talented squad in this race, but they certainly feel like the strongest collective, with a strong possession and pressing game plan. Here at Football España, we love talking about Giraldez’s Celta, and we have a few articles analysing them here and here.
🗞️TUESDAY COLUMN
⛈️There’s a storm brewing at Balaidos…
🌅But far from the downpour that Celta Vigo fans are accustomed to, it’s goals that are raining and the sun has been shining🔥
✍️In a fantastic debut piece, @janufooty looks into Claudio Giraldez’s zesty young Celta👇 pic.twitter.com/PXlQKjKdCu
— Football España (@footballespana_) September 17, 2024
They’ve turned Balaidos into a fortress and are now the joint fourth-best team at home, alongside Athletic Club. The big pending assignment for them comes away from home. In the first 11 away games of the season, Celta only managed five points, but things have improved in the last two months. Celta have not lost an away game since their defeat against Valencia on the 2nd of February, picking up draws against Atletico and Girona and victories against Real Valladolid and Mallorca.
One threat for Celta is that their squad is still relatively thin. A Madroa, the Celta academy, has been very productive and Giraldez has taken advantage of it, but this side, for example, still relies heavily on a 37-year-old Iago Aspas for goals. The other threat is that the road ahead is brutal, with away games against Real Madrid and Barcelona, and duels against direct rivals for European spots: Villarreal, Sevilla, Real Sociedad, Rayo Vallecano, and Getafe.
Real Sociedad: Talent-Rich, Goal-Shy
No team in this battle has more raw talent than Real Sociedad. On their day, they’re a European-worthy side, no question. However, no team has underwhelmed more in the final third.
Despite losing Robin Le Normand last summer, Nayef Aguerd stepped up instead, while Martin Zubimendi continues to anchor the midfield reliably. These two are arguably the MVPs who have kept la Real’s defensive performance steady. Imanol Alguacil’s team is relentlessly competitive – on a good day or a bad one, they always show up to at least fight and compete.
The glaring red flag is their offence. With just 30 goals, they are the fourth worst in the league: simply unacceptable for a team of their standing. There has been a steady erosion of attacking talent over the last six years. Players like Martin Odegaard, David Silva, Alexander Isak, and Alexander Sorloth have come and gone, but their replacements have yet to reach a similar level and consistency. Meanwhile, injuries have made Mikel Oyarzabal into a different, less impactful player. Takefusa Kubo has been the attack’s most dangerous performer, yet his output alone isn’t good enough to drag the team back into European contention.
Faced with this talent drain, Alguacil has struggled to find new solutions, and as results slip, frustrations are mounting. To add further uncertainty into the mix, Alguacil’s contract expires at the end of the season, and there’s no sign of renewal yet.
Rayo Vallecano: Punching Above Their Weight
If Rayo Vallecano make it into Europe, it’ll be one of the great underdog stories of the season. This squad was built to avoid relegation (barely), not continental nights. Rayo have one of the three lowest revenues and wage bills in La Liga, and the oldest average starting XI in the league. Yet here they are, mixing it up with clubs that spend several times more than them.
Inigo Perez’s side are balanced. Not great at anything, but midtable solid across the board. The centre-back duo of Abdul Mumin and Florian Lejeune has provided reliable performance with very few major mistakes, backed up by Augusto Batalla, who’s shown as much reliability as he has personality. Their midfield has a decent balance between ball recovery and intelligent distribution.
Their attack has no stars, but Rayo’s direct style of play and intensity can often stretch opponents and create more space for the second-line attackers – Isi Palazon, Alvaro Garcia, Jorge de Frutos – to arrive at the box and shoot.
The big worry? Depth. The squad is paper thin. You get the sense that if they lose even one or two starters, the wheels could come off. For example, it’s hard to imagine Espanyol scoring four against them like they did last weekend were Mumin fit and available.
Mallorca: Fortress Football with a European Twist?
There was an expectation that Mallorca would evolve offensively under Jagoba Arrasate. However, the side’s identity remains very similar to what it was under Javier Aguirre: tough, gritty, and stubborn.
Mallorca excels at frustrating opponents via a compact and disciplined low-to-mid block, and they do it well. Antonio Raillo and co. have effectively turned Son Moix into a no-fly zone with their aerial dominance. Their physicality, discipline, and defensive structure are tailor-made for knockout-style football. If they do make it to Europe, don’t be surprised if they thrive.
Their Achilles’ heel is glaring: goals. Only Leganes and Valladolid have scored fewer this season. Vedat Muriqi continues to lead the attack but less effectively than in previous years, lagging a bit behind his expected goals. If Mallorca score first, they’re incredibly hard to break down, but if they go behind, the struggle feels all too familiar.
Fortunately, despite the calendar featuring Real Madrid and Barcelona away games, the rest of the schedule is not as bad as some of their opponents.
Getafe: Bordalas Style Efficiency
Say what you want about Getafe’s aesthetics – this team gets results. Jose Bordalas gets results. La Liga’s slick-haired villain has returned to do exactly what he always does. Getafe have conceded the third fewest goals in the league (25). This outcome stems from a team defends and presses intensely, that knows how to break down opposition attacks, and a David Soria on a particularly good shot-stopping run. The memes write themselves when you realise that their top scorer is defensive midfielder Mauro Arambarri.
Similar to Rayo, Getafe are a team who have nothing to lose in this race. This squad was built to avoid relegation, not to fight for Europe. Similar to Mallorca, this is a team that’s better at defending a result than chasing one. Their offence (30 goals), remains one of the worst in the league, but the return of Borja Mayoral has helped a bit in this department.
Sevilla: Lukebakio Lightning, Identity Crisis
No one expected Sevilla to be here – not in a good way. After years of European regularity, they’ve stumbled into midtable spots. It will take some time to rebuild and look like a top-half team again.
Dodi Lukebakio has been the brightest spot in this Sevilla side and their main argument, carrying the attack with pace, goals, and energy. Without him, this side would likely be closer to a relegation scrap than a European push.
Structurally, the team is still a work in progress. As Football España explained in last week’s column, coach Garcia Pimienta has had to sacrifice some of his possession-heavy style in favour of something more direct – something more suited to the players at his disposal. It’s a compromise, and it shows.
🗞️In our latest column piece, we take a look at why everything has looked – and been – so difficult for Sevilla under Garcia Pimienta.
After the rains in March, Los Nervionenses are stuck in a marsh of uncertainty.
✍️ @janufooty 👇https://t.co/JeSHYKS33x#SevillaFC
— Football España (@footballespana_) April 1, 2025
Among these six teams, they feel the least cohesive. However, they are still five points away from the eighth place, so there is still a shot at making it into Europe.
Who’s Getting Their Passport Stamped?
It’s a brutal, beautiful mess. Six teams, two (maybe three) spots. These teams still have plenty of duels against each other in the next eight match days, so every goal, every point, and every slip-up could be the difference between a European adventure and a summer of what ifs.
To this writer, Celta and Real Sociedad still have the strongest claims to the seventh and eighth spots. Celta have a clear plan and structure, and most importantly, they have everyone rowing in the same direction in a way they hadn’t in years. Real Sociedad has the talent, and even their baseline level might be higher than that of the other competitors. The ninth spot is a bit trickier to guess: as Mallorca have arguably more talent than the other sides in this fight, even if they have lost a lot of momentum in 2025. Rayo look like a more stable collective, but if Mumin’s injury continues to punish them so severely, Vallecas becomes a tighter spot for the home side. Regardless of the outcome, this fight for the last European spots is one of the big nailbiters towards the end of the season.
