LaLiga 2025-26: Barcelona to retain title and a tight relegation battle predicted – Soccer News

LaLiga returns on Friday, with Girona and Rayo Vallecano kicking off the new campaign.

Barcelona head into the season as reigning champions – indeed, they won both LaLiga and the Copa del Rey last term, while also triumphing in the Supercopa de Espana.

It was a brilliant debut season in charge for Hansi Flick, and one that saw two of his star attackers – Raphinha and Lamine Yamal – propel themselves right into Ballon d’Or contention.

While Barca will look to build on last season’s success, it is the start of a new era for Real Madrid under the tutelage of Xabi Alonso.

Atletico Madrid rounded out the traditional “big three” last season, and they have been busy rebuilding Diego Simeone’s squad this summer.

Athletic Bilbao, who finished fourth to secure a place in the Champions League for the first time since 2014-15, have made a statement of intent by keeping hold of star winger Nico Williams, while Villarreal are also back dining at Europe’s top table.

Among the newly promoted clubs, Real Oviedo are making their grand return to the top flight after 24 years away – Santi Cazorla’s team kick off their campaign at Villarreal, before hosting Madrid in their second outing back in the big time.

Here, using the data-led simulations run by Opta’s supercomputer, we forecast how the 2025-26 LaLiga season will shake up.

Barcelona backed for LaLiga title

Barca only finished four points clear of second-placed Madrid last season, but they were by some distance the best team in Spain across the campaign.

The Blaugrana plundered 102 goals in LaLiga – they were the only team across Europe’s top five divisions to score a century of league goals in 2024-25, while they also led the way for expected goals (92.2) and shots (678). They trailed only Bayern Munich (2,706) recorded more passes into the final third than Barca (2,626).

Barca’s success was spearheaded by their sensational attacking displays. Raphinha registered 56 goal involvements (34 goals, 22 assists) in all competitions, while only Kylian Mbappe (43) scored more goals among players in Europe’s top five leagues than Robert Lewandowski (42).

Yamal led LaLiga for assists (13 – four clear of any other player), while the 18-year-old also attempted (309) and completed (161) the most dribbles of any player in Spain’s top flight. To put that last stat into perspective, Sevilla’s Dodi Lukebakio recorded the second-most successful dribbles in LaLiga, with 84.

Barca missed out on Athletic star Williams, but have brought in Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United to further bolster their attack.

It is no surprise, then, that our model fancies Barca as the favourites – they retain the title in 46.5% of the supercomputer’s simulations. There is a 26.4% chance of Flick’s team finishing second, and just a 13.6% likelihood that they miss out on the top three – something that has not happened since 2003.

Madrid, meanwhile, have a 32.1% chance of regaining the crown.

The model actually gives Madrid a higher chance of winning the title than placing second (28.7%), while they finish third in 16.9% of the sims.

Atletico are given just an 11.7% chance of winning their third league crown under Simeone, with third place their most likely destination (21.2%), with the supercomputer forecasting a tussle for the top four as a more probable outcome than a title win.

Villarreal (3.7%) and Athletic (2.9%) are the only other teams to have over a 2% chance of winning the title, but it is hard to see anybody outside of LaLiga’s established elite challenging for the trophy. Not since Valencia, in 2004, has a club other than Madrid, Barca or Atletico been crowned champions.

The top-four tussle

Whereas the race for the title looks set to be between the big three yet again, 19 of the 20 LaLiga clubs finished in the top four in at least 1% of the model’s 10,000 simulations.

The top five clubs in LaLiga qualified for the Champions League last season, so a fifth-place finish may well be enough – if that were to be the case again this time around, then all 20 sides are in with a shot.

Villarreal and Athletic are expected to tussle it out for fourth spot – the Yellow Submarine have a 13.8% chance of clinching it, with the Basque club’s probability coming in at 13.2%.

Overall, Villarreal’s chances of securing a top-four finish, and therefore guaranteeing themselves a Champions League place, are 37.7%. The likelihood of Athletic doing so is 34%.

But while Villarreal will be looking to rebuild following the departures of Alex Baena and Thierno Barry, Athletic have so far kept hold of their strong core.

Williams recorded 10 goal involvements in LaLiga (five goals, five assists), while his older brother Inaki contributed 14 (six goals, eight assists). Oihan Sancet top-scored with 15 goals from midfield, so there is plenty of talent at Ernesto Valverde’s disposal.

Valverde built his team on solid foundations last season – only Atletico (33.6) had a lower xGA than Athletic (38.4) in LaLiga last term. If they can keep up that level of performance, there is no doubting their top-four credentials.

Real Betis, who reached the Conference League final last season, are predicted to finish sixth, though the probability of them finishing in the top four drops to 17.6%.

Real Sociedad had a disappointing season by their standards, missing out on Europe altogether. They finished 11th, their lowest placing since they rounded out the 2017-18 season in 12th.

Sergio Francisco has taken over from long-serving coach Imanol Alguacil, having moved up from La Real’s B-team. La Real, though, are more likely to be relegated (10.8%) than they are to finish in the top four (7.5%).

Osasuna (11.2%), Celta Vigo (10.1%) and Valencia (7.3%) look unlikely to push for the Champions League, but are certainly among the European contenders.

Girona were the surprise package in LaLiga in 2023-24, but finished all the way down in 16th last season and have just a 3% probability of making the top four.

Sevilla, seven-time Europa League/UEFA Cup champions, finished 17th in 2024-25, and their chances of a top-six finish rank at only 8.7%.

Rayo Vallecano punched well above their weight to secure their joint-best finish in LaLiga (eighth) and make it into the Conference League qualifiers. They have a 25.4% chance of repeating a top-eight finish, but our model is forecasting a bottom-half finish.

The relegation battle

There are no overwhelming favourites for the drop, which will be music to the ears of the fans of the newly promoted trio, Real Oviedo, Elche and Levante. That being said, those teams are the ones that our model predicts will be heading to the second tier come the end of the season.

Oviedo, who beat Mirandes in the promotion play-off at the end of June, are back in the big time for the first time since 2000-01.

They went down in 32.7% of the model’s sims, though Elche are actually the team most likely to finish bottom of the pile (13.1%).

Elche’s chances of survival stand at 67.4%, so just 0.1% more than Oviedo’s.

Levante, who topped the second tier last season, have the best chance of staying up among the promoted teams, at 70.6%.

Getafe finished in 13th in 2024-25, though only two points above the bottom three, such was the congested nature of the bottom half. They go down in 28.7% of the supercomputer’s scenarios.

Espanyol will be hoping that the departure of star performer Joan Garcia to their city rivals Barca does not derail their chances – the probability of them staying up comes in at 75.2%.

Sevilla’s decline in the last couple of years has been stark. They won the Europa League in 2023, yet have since finished 13th and 17th. Once a regular top-four contender, the Andalusian club will be hoping they can avoid a relegation tussle this year – according to our model, there is a 23.7% likelihood that they go down.