‘Not what people expect’ – Why Arsenal vs. Atletico will not

Arsenal and Atletico Madrid should not play out a drab goalless draw that some perhaps expect from Tuesday’s Champions League clash, Gunners expert Charles Watts has explained to Sports Mole.

Mikel Arteta and Diego Simeone lock horns in a managerial sense for the first time in the league-phase encounter at the Emirates, which pits two teams renowned for remarkable defensive qualities against one another.

Arsenal have only conceded three goals across all competitions this season, are yet to be breached in the Champions League and kept another clean sheet in Saturday’s 1-0 Premier League win over Fulham at Craven Cottage.

Meanwhile, Atletico have developed a reputation for keeping the back door shut under Simeone over the past decade or so, although the Rojiblancos have outscored Arsenal in this season’s UCL, netting five against Eintracht Frankfurt and two against Liverpool.

As a result, Watts is anticipating a gripping watch at the Emirates, saying: “You never quite know what you’re going to get from Atletico. They’re known as this horrible team to watch, spoil the party and spoil the game.

“But the game at Anfield, 3-2 thriller – I don’t think it’s going to be the game that many expect it to be. I think it probably will be quite open. I don’t think it’s going to be that dour, defensive, two teams cancel each other out game. I’m expecting quite an exciting game.”

Arsenal and Atletico will lock horns for just the third time in Tuesday’s league-phase encounter, having first crossed paths in the semi-finals of the 2017-18 Europa League, Arsene Wenger’s final continental hurrah.

Simeone dashed Wenger’s dreams of finally winning a European trophy with Arsenal in that 2-1 aggregate victory, and four members of Atletico’s 2017-18 Europa League-winning squad are still donning the red and white stripes today.

Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid: “Memories of 2018 still fresh” before Champions League game

Jose Gimenez, Antoine Griezmann, Koke and revered goalkeeper Jan Oblak are still working under Simeone, who has also brought out the best in former Manchester City striker Julian Alvarez, who boasts seven goals and three assists from 10 fixtures this term.

However, Watts is more concerned about the prospect of Arsenal trying to break down Atletico than Alvarez giving the defence a rough ride, adding: “With memories still fresh of 2018, Jan Oblak still gives me nightmares at times.

“I’m intrigued to see Alvarez – a player who’s been heavily linked to Arsenal in the last year or so. We all saw him at Manchester City, almost in the shadows of other strikers, but was always seen as a decent player.

“He’s really taken his game up a level since his move to Atletico. But he’s coming up against a hell of a defence, whatever defence we see tonight. So it’ll be a big, big challenge for him.

“I’m more concerned about Arsenal breaking this team down, because it did take a set-piece goal to beat Fulham at the weekend. And at the very top level in Champions League football, you need more than just a set-piece threat.

“What’s Viktor Gyokeres going to do? Is he going to be able to break this goalscoring drought? Those are probably the bigger concerns I have, rather than how a team’s going to hurt Arsenal, because I’m so assured when I look at the defence that they’re going to be able to perform against any strike force that they come up against.”

Arsenal enter the midweek contest with a slightly strengthened squad from their victory over Fulham, as Piero Hincapie is available after making a full recovery from a troublesome groin problem.

How many changes could Mikel Arteta make against Atletico Madrid?

The Bayer Leverkusen international is one of a few options for change in defence, where Ben White and Myles Lewis-Skelly ought to feel optimistic of displacing Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori respectively.

A striking statistic shows why Lewis-Skelly should get the nod on Tuesday evening, and there may also be scope for Gabriel Martinelli to replace Leandro Trossard ahead of Sunday’s Premier League contest with Crystal Palace.

While Watts is anticipating a few alterations, he has warned Gooners not to expect wholesale changes, adding: “I’m not sure he’ll do both full-backs.

“I just feel Crystal Palace is a bigger game – the position Arsenal are in the league, the momentum they’ve got, the struggles that Liverpool have got. They’ve got a difficult game this weekend, City have got a tough looking game as well.

“Arsenal need to keep their foot on the pedal in their Premier League. Obviously I want to win tonight’s game, but the Premier League, that’s the one to make sure you’ve got the fully strongest team available for.

“I’d be resting Timber, resting Calafiori. I think Martinelli will come in for Trossard. I’ll be intrigued to see what he does in the middle. Will one of Rice or Zubimendi be given the night off or some of the night off? The thing with Arteta, a lot of people expect him to make wholesale changes. And then you see the team sheet, and it’s so much stronger than most people expect.

“Whereas I would probably do four or five changes for this game with Palace in mind, I don’t think Arteta would do that. Two, three maximum is what we’ll probably see from him.”

Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid: Mikel Arteta’s unique suspension dilemma

The Arsenal boss is also facing a unique selection dilemma in midfield, as Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice are already one booking away from incurring a Champions League suspension.

The pair were both cautioned against Athletic Bilbao and Olympiacos, and if either is yellow-carded on Tuesday night, they would miss Arsenal’s trip to Slavia Prague on matchday four of the Champions League.

However, Zubimendi and Rice sitting out the Slavia Prague game through suspension would mean that they would be fine to face Bayern Munich on matchday five – a preferable set of circumstances to the possible alternative for Gooners.

Watts cannot see Arteta factoring in hypotheticals when it comes to his team selection, though, saying: “I didn’t realise they were on that tightrope already! I’d much rather miss Prague than Bayern Munich. I’m not sure Mikel would have that in his mind when it comes to picking his team. He’d trust his players not to get a stupid booking.

“But one of those two, especially Zubimendi, before the international break, they tried to rest him. He had to come on early against West Ham because of Martin Odegaard’s injury. Then he went away with Spain, played the games there, came back, was given at least one day of training last week, started against Fulham, played the whole game.

“I feel that they’ve got their eye on him a little bit in terms of needing a rest. He’s played a lot of football. You could drop Declan Rice into the six, bring Merino in, play him alongside Eze. It wouldn’t shock me if that’s the case, but Zubimendi knows Atletico very, very well. Mikel might want to lean into that knowledge.”

Atletico also head into the contest on the back of a slender domestic victory – defeating Osasuna 1-0 in La Liga over the weekend – but Simeone’s side are yet to pick up a single away win so far this season.

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