Opportunity beckons as Spanish clubs target European silverware

The round-of-16 commences in the three European competitions this week, and following the new league phase and the additional play-off round, things take on a much more conventional feel from this point on.

With six of the seven Spanish clubs still standing, there should be a strong LaLiga challenge in all three competitions. 

The Madrid derby in the Champions League is the headline round-of-16 act from a Spanish perspective, but there are also glamour ties for the Basque clubs in the Europa League over the next fortnight. Meanwhile, Barcelona and Real Betis are both clear favourites to win their match-ups against Portuguese opponents and progress into European quarter-finals.

The one big remaining difference this season is that the brackets have already been drawn up in each of the three competitions, making it easier for fans to plot their club’s potential path to glory. 

Those paths are outlined below, along with win probabilities for all of the Spanish clubs taken from predictions site Polymarket.

Champions League – Madrid clubs gearing up for derby showdown & why this could be Barca’s year

There were Champions League Madrid derbies in four consecutive seasons between 2014 and 2017, with Los Blancos winning the lot, including those two finals in Lisbon and Milan.

The big two from the Spanish capital haven’t met on the UCL stage since, but that all changes tonight when Atleti head to the Santiago Bernabeu for the 1st leg of their round-of-16 tie.

Diego Simeone’s side are viewed as the least likely of the six remaining Spanish clubs to go on and win a European trophy this season, but with Real Madrid dealing with a number of selection issues heading into this tie, Atleti will believe they have a real shot at finally getting the better of their city rivals on the European stage.

Los Rojiblancos certainly take the better form into this game, with just one defeat in their last 26 competitive matches, but it’s impossible to ever discount Real Madrid in a competition they won for the sixth time in 11 years, and 15th time overall, only last season.

Whoever emerges from the Derbi madrileño will go on to face Arsenal or PSV in the quarter-finals.

As for Barcelona, they have to be feeling good about their chances of reaching at least the last four. Benfica, and Borussia Dortmund or Lille, are the obstacles that lie in wait for Barca and they’ve already beaten two of those three teams away from home in this season’s competition. 

They also hammered possible semi-final opponents Bayern 4-1 in the league phase back in October and have tended to raise their game against the stronger sides this season.

Hansi Flick’s men rattled in 28 goals in the league phase, more than any other team, to secure 2nd place which ensures they cannot meet top seeds Liverpool or either Madrid club until the final.

As a result, Barca’s path to the final in Munich is as clear as that of any other team remaining in the competition and they currently boast the highest tournament win probability at 19%.

Europa League – Athletic dreaming of a hometown final as La Real get set for Man Utd test

Athletic Club and Real Sociedad find themselves on the same half of the Europa League draw, meaning there is no possibility of an all-Basque final in Bilbao.

Should they both progress, the clubs would meet at the semi-final stage, although there are some major hurdles for both Ernesto Valverde and Imanol’s sides to overcome first.

There was little reward for Athletic finishing 2nd in the league phase, with Italian giants Roma their round-of-16 opponents. The clubs met earlier in the competition, drawing 1-1 at the Stadio Olimpico, with Aitor Paredes scoring a late equaliser for this impressive Athletic side that looks sure to be playing Champions League football next season.

San Mames should be rocking next week when the sides meet for the 2nd leg in Bilbao, and Athletic fans will be hoping that home advantage, in one of the great Spanish football stadiums, can spur them on all the way to the final which will take place at San Mames on 21st May.

Real Sociedad supporters would quite fancy the opportunity to make the short hop to Bilbao for the final too, but they’ll need to see off Premier League giants Manchester United just to reach the quarter-finals.

While United are not the force of old, and that’s putting it mildly, La Real haven’t made it past this stage in their four previous European adventures under Imanol. You have to go back to the 1988/89 UEFA Cup, when the club was still playing at the old Atotxa Stadium, for the last time Donostia hosted a European quarter-final.

While Real Sociedad are still seen as the slight underdogs to progress from their round-of-16 tie, they are the 5th favourites to win the competition overall with an 8% chance of lifting the trophy. Meanwhile, only Tottenham Hotspur have a higher win probability than Athletic Club (15%).

Conference League – Betis’ best shot at European glory

While there has been a lot to like about Real Betis in the Manuel Pellegrini era, they’ve not really delivered on the European stage, and have failed to make it past the round-of-16 stage in their three previous continental ventures.

They weren’t particularly convincing in the early stages of the Conference League this term either, but a 3-1 aggregate win over Gent in the play-off round has set up a tie against Portuguese side Vitoria Guimaraes in the round-of-16.

Real Betis have made some big strides forward over the past few weeks, with Antony, Cucho Hernandez and Jesus Rodriguez coming into the side to bolster a misfiring attack. They defeated Real Madrid at the weekend in LaLiga, and this is unquestionably their best ever opportunity to make it to a first ever European semi-final.

Should they see off Vitoria Guimaraes, they’d face Jagiellonia Białystok of Poland, or Cercle Brugge of Belgium in the quarter-finals. With tournament favourites Chelsea on the opposite half of the draw, Betis have a 15% chance of winning the Conference League.

The race for an extra Champions League place

One interesting subplot to events on the continental stage over the next fortnight and beyond, is the battle that is brewing between Spain and Italy for an extra place in next season’s Champions League.

With England almost certain to seal one of the two additional places, it’s a close fight for the second slot which is determined by a points system based on how clubs from each country perform in this season’s European competitions.

According to @FootRankings on X, Spain currently has an 84.1% chance of securing a fifth place in next season’s Champions League. With six remaining clubs in Europe, compared to Serie A’s four, LaLiga is in a very strong position, although that situation could change quickly depending on results over the next two weeks.

The Athletic-Roma tie in the Europa League looks set to have a big impact on determining which country is awarded the extra place. Should Valverde’s side prevail over two legs against their Serie A rivals, that may be enough to clinch the extra Champions League slot for LaLiga.

Villarreal (currently 5th in LaLiga) would appear to be the main beneficiaries of that, but should Spain secure an extra spot at Europe’s top table, that would also mean the team that finishes 8th would qualify for the Conference League, assuming a top-seven side wins the Copa del Rey which is almost certain to be the case.

With even the likes of Getafe (currently 14th) only six points off 8th, there’s plenty of reason for fans of the other Spanish clubs to be cheering on their LaLiga rivals in Europe over the next two weeks.