Preview: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid – prediction, team news, lineups

Flashpoints and flair are to be expected in the pick of the Champions League last-16 ties, as bitterest foes Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid meet at the Bernabeu in Tuesday’s first leg.

While Carlo Ancelotti’s champions needed to eliminate Manchester City from the playoffs just to make it this far, their red and white foes finished in the top five of the league phase table.

Match preview

© Imago

A record-extending 16th top-level continental crown remains firmly within Real Madrid’s sights, even if they have taken the scenic route to advance to the last 16, being punished for their failure to qualify directly with a daunting playoff tie against 2023 winners Manchester City.

However, the grandmaster Ancelotti outwitted Pep Guardiola over two legs once again, overseeing a dramatic 3-2 Etihad success before Real rubber-stamped their progression with a 3-1 second-leg triumph courtesy of a hat-trick from the electrifying Kylian Mbappe.

Now unbeaten in nine successive knockout matches in the Champions League – a streak that includes their run to Wembley glory last year – Los Blancos are taking on a Spanish foe for the 12th time in the European Cup knockout phase, and only two of their previous 11 such encounters have seen them eliminated.

Ancelotti’s crop came up short against a fellow La Liga outfit over the weekend, though, being haunted by a former flame as an Isco-inspired Real Betis emerged as shock 2-1 victors on Saturday, thus snapping Real’s three-game winning run and seven-match unbeaten sequence.

The reigning European champions at least have a stellar Bernabeu record to fall back on, prevailing in eight and drawing one of their last nine matches in front of the home faithful, although there are no prizes for guessing who that solitary stalemate came against.

© Imago

Still seeking their European vengeance for their 2014 and 2016 final heartbreak, Atletico managed to make the most of Real’s La Liga title setback on Saturday, although Diego Simeone’s men were counting their lucky stars on several occasions against Athletic Bilbao.

Julian Alvarez’s strike settled the contest in the Rojiblancos’ favour, but the woodwork came to Atletico’s rescue on no fewer than three occasions in the second 45, and the outpouring of emotion from Simeone at full time should have been as much relief as it was revelry.

Rising to the top of the La Liga standings courtesy of Saturday’s success – at least until Barcelona are yet to play Real Sociedad on Sunday – Los Rojiblancos did not flaunt their defensive prowess in the UCL league phase, but their irrepressible attacking play made the difference as they won their final five games to appropriately place fifth.

However, each of Atletico’s three away knockout games in the 2023-24 Champions League ended in defeat – their longest losing run on the road at this stage of Europe’s top tournament since 1971 – and Real Madrid are a perfect 5-0 when it comes to knockout ties with their city rivals in the UCL.

Indeed, the current holders ended Atletico’s hopes of European stardom in all of the 1958-59, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 campaigns, but they have now won just one of their last seven battles with Simeone’s side in all tournaments, as February’s tense stalemate marked the third 1-1 in succession between the Madrid mammoths.

Real Madrid Champions League form:

Real Madrid form (all competitions):

Atletico Madrid Champions League form:

Atletico Madrid form (all competitions):

Team News

© Imago

As well as serving a two-game domestic suspension, Real Madrid metronome Jude Bellingham is also banned for Tuesday’s first leg on account of picking up his third yellow card of this season’s Champions League in the home win over Man City.

The England international joins injury victims Eder Militao (knee), Dani Carvajal (knee), Dani Ceballos (hamstring) and Jesus Vallejo (hamstring) on the sidelines this week, but Ancelotti has affirmed that Federico Valverde will be available again following discomfort.

The ever-versatile Uruguayan may therefore be called upon to replace Lucas Vazquez at right-back, one of two potential changes in defence from Ancelotti, who may also promote Raul Asencio back to the XI ahead of David Alaba as he errs on the side of caution with the injury-plagued latter.

Speaking of defensive fitness concerns, Atletico arrive at the Bernabeu without the experienced Cesar Azpilicueta owing to a leg injury, while long-serving lynchpin Koke is also unavailable on account of a thigh problem.

Los Rojiblancos otherwise have a fully-fit squad available for the first leg, where Alvarez has certainly stuck his hand up for a start after his winner on Saturday, not to mention his six UCL goals in the 2024-25 season so far.

The former Manchester City man could very well demote Alexander Sorloth to the substitutes’ bench on Tuesday, while Marcos Llorente – who also came on to assist Alvarez’s decisive strike – will threaten Giuliano Simeone’s spot on the right.

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:Courtois; Valverde, Rudiger, Asencio, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Diaz, Vinicius; Mbappe

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Gimenez, Galan; Llorente, De Paul, Barrios, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez

We say: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Atletico’s defence may have held out against Athletic, but Simeone’s men will be all too aware that they rode their luck countless times, and Jan Oblak’s goal will surely be breached at the Bernabeu.

Expect a typically gritty rearguard display from Simeone’s side nonetheless, though, and without Bellingham pulling the offensive strings, we can picture Real being held to a fourth consecutive 1-1 Madrid derby draw, one that will mean advantage Atletico for the second leg.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

ID:566891:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect16358:

Previews by email