Spain’s four sides themselves in varying situations in the Champions League currently, with three games to go in the league phase of the competition. The top eight will qualify automatically for the Round of 16, while teams placed from 9th to 24th will feature in the play-off round. The bottom 12 will go out of the competition, with no chance of dropping into the Europa League.
Undoubtedly the most surprising of all four sides is Real Madrid‘s precarious position in 24th, as they face a tough trip to Atalanta in Bergamo. Currently sitting on six points, Diario AS say that projections predict a total of 8 points will give them a 21% chance of qualifying, and 9 points will give them a 76% chance of making it through. Just four points from their final three games, (Salzburg at home and Brest away after Atalanta) will see them through in 98% of cases.
How many points will be needed to finish in Top 24 in the Champions League?
We’ve simulated the UCL league stage 10,000 times and in the majority of simulations (55%) the 24th ranked team ended with 9 points.
8 pts could also be enough (21%), but 7 is already very unlikely. pic.twitter.com/7PvOHPZyuR
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) August 24, 2024
Atletico Madrid currently sit on 9 points, meaning they are all but through already, and thus will be looking at the top eight. Projections say that between 15 and 17 points will likely be enough, meaning Atletico would need at least a couple of wins against Slovan Bratislava, RB Salzburg and Bayer Leverkusen. Barcelona could even get through to the Round of 16 with just three more points against Borussia Dortmund, Benfica and Atalanta- they currently sit on 12 points.
🔹 11 pts offer near certainty for Top 24 in UCL.
5⃣ teams are already there1⃣1⃣ more teams can be there next week
🔸 17 pts offer near certainty for Top 8
Liverpool 🏴 is the only team that can get there after MD6. pic.twitter.com/Q7pPUWYGwl
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) December 5, 2024
Girona are in the least appealing situation. Their Champions League debut so far has yielded just 3 points against Slovan Bratislava. They would in all likelihood need two heroic wins or five points from their tricky remaining fixture list against Liverpool, AC Milan and Arsenal.
